Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Gharwapsi - A victim of its own verdict


Gharwapsi, a reconversion drive by the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and other Hindu groups, has made headlines in the past weeks. The parliamentary proceedings were disrupted as the opposition demanded a stop to reconversion activities. The government failed miserably to clear the standoff and the media had much to write about. The constitution of India guarantees religious freedom to every citizen. The 42nd amendment to the constitution of India, in 1976, added the word, “secular” to the preamble. Any attempt to challenge the constitution should be dealt with strictly. People should be left to choose whatever religion they want to practice, without fear of persecution.
Gharwapsi or bringing Indians back to their ancestral religion is a stupid idea. India has been home to four great religions of the world, a distinction India alone has. The modern concept of religious tolerance is a gift India gave to the world, much before the term was thought of by the western world. There is no evidence to suggest that any attempts were made to use force to impose one’s religious belief on other. India has not only been tolerant of diverse religious views but had actively assimilated different religious views to into what is now known as Indian spirituality. Common Gods and deities have mentions across different scriptures from Vedas, Jain texts, Buddhist art and literature and in the most modern of all religions, Sikhism.
If India were such a fantastic place to practice one’s religion, what went wrong? The supporters of Gharwapsi claim that their action is a reaction to what the others are doing. By others they primarily mean the Christian missionary movements in India. They accuse them of converting Indians by using unfair and unethical means. This is not entirely wrong. Western missionary groups, especially from America have been active in India for a while now. According to a report published by Ministry of Home Affairs for the year 2011-12, more than 1,100 crore Rupees were donated and received by various Christian organisations. The donations do not fall under any of the fifty eight or so categories mentioned in the report and are clubbed under, “Activities other than those mentioned above”. The website gives no information on the details of activities carried out under the category. Some of the largest donors/recipient organisations were, World Vision India (233.38 crore), Believers Church (190.05 crore), Compassion International (183.83 crore), The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints (130.77) and Missionaries of Charity (62.77 crore). In all these and other organization together accounted for around 10% of the total receipts.
We know where you are
Donation and working for public good (as almost all of these organisations claim to do) is not a bad thing. It should not matter who is helping disadvantaged people, as long as they are benefitting. But things change drastically if one looks at aggressive evangelical practices adopted by the Joshua Project. The meticulous manner in which the organization has profiled India will put the National Population Register to shame. Every single variable like language, dialect, religion, caste, state, district, etc. has been mapped, down to the post code. Each variable is then marked with a red, yellow or green dot to mark the “progress level”, which obviously means growth of converts.
Such organized proselytization networks are in the same league as the smaller organisations carrying out Gharwapsi. Both encroach upon the individual’s right to practice his or her religion. Telling someone that his or her religious beliefs are not the right one and hence the best way to escape the wrong is to convert, is demeaning and undermines the individual’s right to free thinking. The need today is not to go on obstructing the parliament but to find a solution to the problem of coercive conversion methods. The opposition sadly seems to be in a dilemma. It wants the Gharwapsi to stop but at the same time is not willing to stop the aggressive evangelical activities by the likes of Joshua Project.

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Neither Lovin’ it nor is it Sogood


The organized quick service restaurants (QSR) market of India is believed to be worth USD 1 billion. A news report in The Business Standard quotes a CRISIL research from 2013, which puts the share of international brands like McDonalds, Subway, Dominos Pizza and Yum Brands (owning KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell brands) at 63%. The same report predicts that the QSR market will swell to USD 8 billion by 2020. No wonder Burger King opened its restaurants in India last month. Fast food has made deep inroads in India, like it has everywhere else. Clever marketing, aggressive pricing, uniform products across stores and ignorance have all worked in their favour.


Catch them young and make them fat
At a billion dollars and potential to grow eight folds in next five year, the QSR business looks an attractive proposition. The business they generate and employment they create for a country like India can never be matched by any Indian restaurant chain. So should we welcome them or should we exercise caution? The answer is, both. The caution should get more weight, however. World over the QSR have pushed countries into chronic diseases like obesity, hypertension and diabetes. A recent World Health Organisation study has highlighted the correlation between average number of fast food transactions per capita and an increase in average Body Mass Index (a measure of obesity). A BMI of 25 is considered overweight and anything above 30 is considered obese). The authors of the study found that while the average number of annual fast food transactions per capita increased from 26.61 to 32.76, average BMI increased from 25.8 to 26.4. Thus, each 1-unit increase in the average number of annual fast food transactions per capita was associated with an increase of 0.0329 in BMI over the study period.

A look at the calorie count of some of the popular meal combinations offered by different QSR will give a better picture.
 
Meal combination
Total Kilo Calories (% of daily requirement*)
Total Sodium, mg (% of daily requirement*)
Masala Veg burger (1) + Fries (1, regular) + Chocolate Shake (1, regular)
843 (30.8)
1150 (54.9)
McChicken burger (1) + Chicken McNuggets (4) + Chocolate Shake (1, regular)
783 (28.6)
1280 (61.1)
Chicken Zinger Burger (1) + Fries (1, regular) +Strawberry Storm (1)
 
1066 (43.5)
1080 (51.6)
Paneer Zinger Burger (1) + Fries (1, regular) +Strawberry Storm (1)
 
1190 (39)
1080 (51.6)
*http://icmr.nic.in/final/RDA-2010.pdf

 The above table gives an estimate of the amount of calories consumed in an average meal combination. The consumption ranges from 28% to a staggering 43.5% of the daily requirement. An important thing to consider would be the eating habits in India. A burger may not always end up being a meal in itself. Often it is a quick snack, which will be supplemented by a full meal at a later time. This eventually leads to overeating, i.e. more calories. Another important consideration is the sodium intake. The table shows that the average sodium content in a meal combination ranges between 51% - 61% of the daily requirement. These are extremely high levels, given an individual will take at least two more meals (assuming three meals a day). High sodium levels are directly responsible to hypertension, which in turn might lead to other complications.

World over there are many controversies surrounding the business models of multinational QSR, their exploitation of farmers by forcing them to produce what the MNCs want and not paying them a fair price for their goods. The internet is full of stories how these restaurants pay low wages to their employees and force them to adopt dangerous driving practices to meet the delivery time deadlines. All this is important to discuss but can be left for another day in another post. The most dangerous aspect of such organized QSR chains are the adverse impact they have on health of their consumers, especially children and young adults.

Many developed countries have started enforcing calorie displays for every item on the menu. Some activist groups even want the total calories to be displayed in the invoice along with the total purchase amount. The more extreme types want pictures of obese people on the packaging (similar to the gory pictures used on tobacco products). Indian Affair thinks it is time that the Indian government woke up to the new age health challenges people are facing. An evolving mechanism to regulate food industry has to be worked out to inform people on what they are eating. A good start will be prominent display of total calories, total fat and sodium content as a percentage of daily requirement on the menu.

The Ministry of Health should aim to curb the QSRs directly marketing their products to children below a certain age. The very concept of the “happy meal”, which is tailored to attract children (with a free plastic toy) should be banned. Ten year olds are in no position to decide what is good for them and end up forcing their parents to buy them unhealthy food. What India needs is a gradual process, which regulates not just the QSR industry but other organized food businesses like carbonated drinks, sweets and chocolates and processed food. Until that happens Burger King can sell its Whoppers without a care for people’s health.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

The case of Kashmiri Apples and Scottish single malt – Why Kashmir is not Scotland

The idea of a new country being carved out is an exciting one. Especially in the post Cold War world, where changing boundaries was a remote possibility. East Timor, Kosovo and South Sudan were carved out in the twenty first century on ethno-religious lines. The creation did make for some international headlines but the biggest bang was landed by the referendum in Scotland (happening today). Today the Scots will be asked, “Whether Scotland should be an independent country”? People will vote a “yes” or a “no”. The Indian media has not given much importance to the event, but it is inevitable that someone tries to piggyback the movement happening far away from India. Indian Affair happened to read this article on Firstpost. Hasan Suroor has made a case for self-determination for the Indian Kashmiris and ridiculed the Indians for becoming “embarrassingly jingoistic” on the Kashmir issue. 

The case that Hasan makes is subtle. He starts off with some tidbits on the discussion held in one of the committee rooms in the British Parliament on Kashmir dispute. He then trashes it saying it is a mere ritual. Then there is a full paragraph from “an Indian media report”, which apparently proves Hasan’s point that Indian media has a “patriotic slant”. Then there are a few paragraphs on how the liberal, sophisticated ad broad minded Indians and Pakistanis turn embarrassingly jingoistic, as if by magic.

This is followed by a vague argument on how the, “…notion of absolute national sovereignty passed its sell-by date more than two decades ago.” He gives the collapse of Soviet Union as a point of reference as to why the notion of national sovereignty has ceased to exist.

The point is that Soviet Russia was an imperialist force and treated the now independent states as its colonies. The initial bond of ideology had faded when the socialist economic policies went horribly wrong. The states broke off at the first opportunity they got. The very states then joined the Commonwealth of independent states at Russia’s behest. All is not smooth there, the friction between Russia and its former colonies from Georgia in the Caucasus to Ukraine in the Black Sea are a proof that national sovereignty is very much alive and kicking (Russia has annexed Crimea by force).

Then there is another vague mention of, “The partition of Sudan, the growling momentum of secessionist movements in Africa, and the push for autonomy in the Muslim world-- not to mention what's happening in Ukraine--are all signs of the changing times”. It is difficult to link any of this to the Kashmir issue. Sudan was partitioned on ethno-religious lines after decades of bloodshed. Africa probably will go through a long and slow process of rearranging its territorial boundaries. Countries are not created on a drawing board, that’s what the European imperial powers did. It is understandable that the African people would want to set things right, the way it suits them. There is no push for autonomy in the Muslim world. The only thing happening from Morocco to Malaysia is, a push for more authority and tightening of the proverbial iron fist.

Finally Hasan touches upon the Scottish referendum and makes a subtle case for Kashmir to be given the right to self-determination. The constitution of India gives every citizen the right to free speech. Hasan has exercised his. The arguments are flawed, however. He says, “And it is interesting to see how Britain is approaching it? Not by bullying or intimidation but by love-bombing the Scots, begging them to stay on, and promising to reward them with greater autonomy if they reject independence.
Azadi Vs Referendum 

Of course the British are love bombing the Scots, after all the Scots never carried out any terrorist attacks, they never colluded with an adversary to weaken the government in Scotland, and neither did they carry out routine stone pelting on the security forces. They deserve better treatment because they argued their case in a civilised manner.

Hasan then implies that the approach of the Indian government is flawed because, “In India, on the other hand, not only autonomy guaranteed to Kashmir at the time of its accession has been progressively whittled down over the years, the Modi government's official policy is to scrap Article 360 [should be read as 370] which gives it special status”. The benefits and relevance of article 370 is open to debate. There are different views on how the issue should be approached. This debate is a sign that democracy in India is alive and well. Hasan might want to listen to his own view on how times are changing. A debate on article 370 too is a sign of changing times. Let’s not stifle the discussion even before it starts.

Then comes the most bizarre argument. “It is a prescription for further alienating the Kashmiris and pushing them into the pro-azadi camp whereas the effort should be to win their hearts and minds-- if necessary by bribing them, as the Brits are doing, offering them inducements they cannot reject. Like everything else, loyalty has a price tag; and how much you are willing to pay shows much you value a relationship”. A debate on article 370 seems to a prescription for alienation. What happened to the spirit of democracy where everything is open to a debate?

The government of Jammu and Kashmir has budgeted an estimate of ₹22,973 crore for the fiscal 2014-15.  This is the amount of central grant that J&K wants for a year. There are many other infrastructure projects that the Indian government has carried out, not to mention the relief work being carried out by the army in wake of the devastating floods in Kashmir. Sadly the Kashmiris have responded with provocative messages with banners and graffiti and tried to cause physical harm to the rescue teams by pelting stones at helicopters and rescue boats. Probably the Kashmiris do not appreciate “bribes”. They will not because it is not about bribe, the issue is based on religion and religion alone.

“The twenty- first century is the age of “multinational statehood” and large nations with culturally diverse populations need people's consent to govern them.  It is no longer possible to impose consent from London, Moscow and Delhi. It has to be earned. Jackboots have had their day”, says Hasan. It is worth remembering that India is probably one of its kind “multinational state” with such mind-boggling diversity. It’s the Kashmiris who do not appreciate that. The hard evidence of this being the systematic persecution and forced exodus of Kashmiri Hindus in the 1990s. The diversity of Kashmir died at the hands of Islamist movement backed by Pakistani state and non-state actors. India also happens to have a federal form of government. The constitution clearly separates the list of responsibilities falling under the union and state lists. The people of India are giving their consent every five years (some times more often) to govern them.

At the end is another argument as to why India should seek help from a third country, ideally the USA since they have past experience of resolving the Irish issue with the British. Then a soft slap, saying you need to grow up India. The sad thing is that the Kashmiri case has no similarities with the Scottish case. The violence, the religious hatred, the role of adversaries, militancy, systematic change of demography by forcing Hindus out, etc has made Kashmir a case unfit for self-determination. 

Hasan would have come across as a rational thinker rather than as an irrational, nirvana seeking teenager had he also said a word or two to the Kashmiris. Something like do not attack your rescuers or do not cross over to the Pakistani side to get militancy training or try to live in a diverse society and bring back your brothers and sisters whom you kicked out decades ago. His is probably the case of “support by silence”.


Saturday, September 6, 2014

India and dawn of a multipolar world

Once upon a time

Throughout the post war period and until the fall of Soviet Union, the world order was bipolar. At one end was the capitalist United States with its European allies and on other was a socialist Soviet Union with its European members behind the “iron curtain”. There was a third but insignificant pole, the nonaligned group of mainly poor countries. The third pole or the third world eventually became synonymous to poverty and to this date, the term “poor countries” and “third world countries” are used interchangeably.

The world order changed in the post-Soviet era. The cold war came to an end and Russia descended into an economic nightmare. The “shock therapy” Boris Yeltsin administered to the markets resulted in crony capitalism and hyperinflation, wiping out savings of common citizens. The world ceased to be bipolar and America more or less dominated the global landscape. Meanwhile elsewhere in the world, new equations were being written. China had started to show signs of tremendous economic potential and India opened up for investment.

The dragon, the elephant and the pivot to Asia

The fall of Soviet Union seemed to have perfectly timed with events elsewhere. The next two decades proved that the world was no longer unipolar (as America would like to believe) or even bipolar. The rise of third world has created a multipolar world. The first world saw a decline, both in economic and military power. America ended up being entangled in a bloody mess in West Asia while its European allies struggled with recession and plummeting defence spending (most of the NATO members fall short of the 2% targets on defence spending). China rose to prominence, both in economic and military terms. India, despite its bureaucracy and lethargy turned out to be of immense interest to western world. President Obama shifted his interest to “pivot to Asia”. President Putin safely installed himself as a long term ruler of Russia and opened up another power centre with his plans to counter the European Union. The mess in Ukraine is a fine example of EU – Russia power game.

With a multipolar world inevitable, where does India stand in the scheme of things? In his just concluded visit, the Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said, “India is an emerging democratic superpower”. It is hard to say whether he was referring to India’s vibrant democracy or referring to India as an emerging superpower in literal terms. Whatever the case be, India is attracting more attention than ever. The biggest advantage (or disadvantage) is India’s proximity to China. It assures, no one should feel threatened with the “peaceful rise” of China. But the territorial disputes with almost all its neighbours and a claim to almost all of South China Sea has always betrayed the assurance China gives on its peaceful rise.

Will the Buddha smile?

From Myanmar to Japan, countries are deeply suspicious of China’s expansionist threat. India comes as a natural counterbalance due to its economic potential and to some extent military deterrence. Since a few years Asian countries have tried to cosy up to India in an attempt to send a message to China. It is unlikely that India will play a role of a military superpower, the way America has played in the past or the way China intends to. The situation however provides for a very good opportunity where India can secure its national interest and open up new opportunities for its businesses abroad and invite businesses to India and create employment.

Are you thinking what I am thinking?
Singapore, Vietnam, Japan, Myanmar, all at some point have shown keen interest in doing business with India. Most of the time the reason behind such warmth is a mix of business interest and a rising China. Under the previous administration of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, India did not seize the opportunity. The incumbent has shown a clear departure in foreign policy from his predecessor. In the first one hundred days in office the Prime Minister has travelled to Bhutan, Nepal and Japan. He sent his minister for foreign affairs, Sushma Swaraj to at least half a dozen countries in the same period. His Australian counterpart recently concluded his two day visit, which also saw an agreement on civil nuclear partnership.

All this will prove useful only if the visits are turned into concrete business opportunities. The equation of supply and demand will dictate the market, as usual. The world needs India as a counter balance to rising China. India needs the world to set manufacturing base in India and new markets for Indian businesses. The equation is perfect.

If one were to put a red flag on power centres of the world today, there would be one too close to another. America, the EU, Russia, India, China and Japan are all trying to make space for their ambitious plans or are struggling to hold on to what they fear losing.


Territorial expansion died in twentieth century (still thriving in Russia). Today the struggle is about control over resources and markets. The fear of a not so peaceful China rising will bring countries together. India has as much to watch out for as far away Japan. The big question is, “will India stand up to the occasion”?

Saturday, August 23, 2014

The bigger picture

Prime Minister Modi invited the heads of the members of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to his swearing in ceremony. His Pakistani counterpart, Prime Minister Sharif attended the ceremony, which lead to a series of media debates on how the new government is giving out signals of restarting the relationship with Pakistan. Influential journalists from the English media even coined phrases like “sari/shawl diplomacy”, in response to PM Modi sending a shawl to PM Sharif’s mother and the latter reciprocating it with a sari to PM Modi’s mother.

But as always the hype was short lived and there were a series of ceasefire violation along the Line of Control and the international border in Jammu and Kashmir. There was another deliberate attempt by the Pakistani High Commissioner Mr Abdul Basit to annoy the Indian government. The High Commissioner met Mr Sayed Ali Shah Geelani, leader of the All Party Hurriyet Conference, a secessionist group operating from the Kashmir valley. The response from India was to call off the secretary level talks scheduled for 25th August.

Such incidents have happened in the past. India tried to talk peace and was reciprocated with ceasefire violations and even localized war (Kargil 1999). The main reason why all the past attempts to establish peace have failed, is the absence of a unified command in Pakistan. There are three states acting within the country. The elected government, the sundry terrorist groups in the tribal areas and Baluchistan and the all-powerful Pakistani army-ISI nexus. The civilian government has no real power and is always dictated by the army-ISI nexus. The “khaki capitalism” that previous Pakistani generals created has become too big and it only makes sense for the army to keep things under its control. A 2007 book by Ayesha Siddiqa, “Military Inc. - Inside Pakistan's Military Economy” suggests that the total assets under the army control are USD 20 billion, half of it land holdings. An article on Guardian covering the book can be read here. With such huge stakes at hand the Pakistani military will never want peace with India. That would eventually mean no money for weapon stockpiling and hence no source of income.

The relations between India and Pakistan have been at a stage where India should take a step back and look at the larger picture. It is time to shed the obsession with Pakistan and work on others. The new government appears to have done that by engaging with its neighbours. The PM chose Bhutan for his maiden visit followed by Nepal. The response to his visit in both the countries was exceptionally warm. After a long time there are no Indian fishermen in the Sri Lankan prisons. Foreign minister Sushma Swaraj recently concluded her four day multilateral visit to Myanmar. This is a clear departure from the previous government’s stand on foreign engagement.

To put it bluntly, there is no need to go the extra mile to make friends with Pakistan. The country is constantly on the list of failed states, is rife with terrorist and secessionist groups, the economy is in tatters and there is no “real” government to talk to. India would do much better by focusing its energy on the countries which want to work with India and share the fruits of its economic growth.

Lets broaden the road of friendship
The biggest untapped potential is Myanmar. There are two reasons why the country is important. First it was until recently a closed economy run by the military junta. That has changed. Aung Sang Su Kyi has been released from house arrest and is most likely to run for president in the next elections. Second, it is a member of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Indian Affairs has in its previous posts stressed the need to capture the ASEAN market. The prime focus should be on connectivity between the two countries and cross border trade. The much talked about India, Myanmar, Thailand trilateral highway should be put on a priority. Not only will it help Indian businesses but the biggest beneficiary would be the much neglected North East India.

The trilateral highway will also provide much needed market access to land locked Nepal and Bhutan. Private business should take advantage of the resource rich Myanmar and set up manufacturing units, which can supply the products to the ASEAN countries. India’s auto sector, particularly the two-wheeler segment has huge potential in Myanmar and other ASEAN countries. TVS started its manufacturing plant in Indonesia in 2007 and the venture is expected to breakeven this year. Myanmar has its problems, mainly infrastructure, but a first mover advantage might just compensate for the lack of infrastructure, which will be in place, eventually.

With the new government there is a fresh chance to act rationally than emotionally on India’s foreign policy matters. PM Modi was born after India’s independence and has no personal relationship with Pakistan, unlike the previous PM, Mr Singh. The business minded approach of PM Modi and lack of emotional baggage will help him in dealing objectively with our neighbours. Let us see whether the new government seizes the opportunity or repeats the mistakes of the previous governments.
  

Friday, February 14, 2014

The runaway chief minister

Arvind Kejriwal, Delhi’s Chief Minister of 49 days resigned a few hours ago. He blamed the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the supporters, Congress for his resignation. Earlier today he tried to table an anti corruption bill (Jan Lokpal bill), which the Lt. Governor of Delhi has ruled as unconstitutional saying the bill requires approval from the union government. In his defense Kejriwal had sighted previous bills passed without the approval of the union government by the earlier Congress government. The constitutionality of the bill is for the experts to decide. But what Kejriwal did today can be termed as an act of running away from his responsibilities.

I won't play anymore 
He conducted an SMS referendum before accepting the outside support from Congress. However, today there was no such referendum before his resignation. 30% people who voted for Kejriwal during the assembly elections last December have been betrayed. The promises Kejriwal’s Aam Admi Party (AAP) made were hardly fulfilled, apart from a big handout in form of state subsidy for water charges. The most important and long lasting promises like improving the education and health facilities were not even delivered.

What Kejriwal did deliver was a lot of theatrics. Mid night raids on African nationals in name of drugs and prostitution, sit in protests in the heart of the city, sleeping on the pavement overnight, filing high profile police complaints on sub judice matters and making some vague corruption claims. In his 49 days of Chief Ministership he never talked about a long term solution to any of the problems he highlighted during his protest days. His most talked about point, corruption hinged completely on introduction of the Jan Lokpal bill. From our experience we know that bills alone cannot bring corruption down, especially the one that affects the common man. The solution is to remove personnel interference in the processes and automate/digitize them. When there are will be no people involved in the process there won’t be any one asking for a bribe. But Kejriwal chose the high decibel, attention seeking tactics instead of doing actual work.

The reason given by Kejriwal for his resignation today will raise many questions in the coming days. The most obvious one will be, “why didn't he take the legal course to justify the constitutionality of the bill and push it through, even if it took more time”? This is an important question because he has now lost the chance the people of Delhi gave him. He did not use it to deliver his promise but blew it away in indulging in funny theatrics. Even if he returns to power in the next elections with an absolute majority, the constitutionality of the bill will still hold as it does today. Whom shall he blame then?


During the hay days of AAP, just before the elections last year, only 30% of the people in Delhi voted for AAP, this in other words 70% of Delhi rejected AAP. The interesting thing is that AAP got a lot of votes from the fence sitters, people who could not choose between the traditional parties BJP and Congress. It also got a lot of vote from the young voters, many of them first timers. This section is most vulnerable to defection since they see that their party of choice made a lot of noise but did little work in the past 49 days. Delhi is most likely to go to polls once again along with the Lok Sabha polls in April – May. It won’t come as a surprise if AAP actually sees a fall in its vote share.