Indo – Russian tango

Freezing cold Soviet Union was India’s best friend during the Cold War. India imported a lot from Moscow, from wheat to fighter jets. Times changed, Cold War came to an end with the collapse of the Soviet Union, India ushered into green revolution and later into an economic revolution. What remained unchanged all along was the love between India and Russia. There are many reasons why the cosy relations never soured. Bitter experiences with the western countries (especially America) in the past and common strategic interest in the region were the two main forces behind the strong bonding in the past. In recent years, India’s growing defense market and booming economy are the main reasons for the Russians to maintain status quo. Some where the shared values of clinging on to power and big ticket state corruption too bind the two countries together.

Mr. Singh at the Kremlin

The doors are open, but what is on offer?

December witnessed yet another flurry of activities in the South Block secretariat (where the ministry of external affairs is based). Prime Minister Singh was on a three day state visit to Moscow. The visit did not generate much interest in Indian media due to lack of any significant development or announcements. The 36 point joint statement on Ministry of External Affiars’ website is bland. Most of the points talk about “expressing satisfaction” on status quo. The only thing worth a mention is the deal offering licensed production of 42 Sukhoi – MKI 30 jets by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited in India.

Prime Minister Singh also assured his counterpart about starting operations at the Kudankulam nuclear power plant in a couple of weeks. The power plant is being built with Russian collaboration. Ironically, Mr. Singh also congratulated Mr Putin (president in waiting) on winning the Duma elections by his United Russia Party. The election results (widely believed to be heavily rigged) prompted widespread protests by Russians in Moscow and other major cities. Mr Putin ordered the army into the main city square to stop the protests. International observers have complained of widespread fraud in the elections, which gave just under 50% of the votes to the ruling United Russia Party. Observes say that the figures may be inflated by as much as 20%. Mr Singh has undoubtedly embarrassed the Indian democratic values by his gesture.  

The other things the tow countries discussed were of mere ornamental value. Russia’s support to India’s candidature of permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council, countering terrorism, encouraging people to people contact, space collaboration, etc were reiterated for the umpteenth time. In the context of the situation in the Middle East and North Africa, the countries reaffirmed their commitment to the principles of searching the way to overcome crises in the region in compliance with law, exclusively through peaceful means, avoiding violence and outside intervention, through broad, inclusive national dialogue on democratic reforms, taking into account the legitimate rights and aspirations of the peoples of the region. This effectively means being a bystander and watching from the sidelines, without contributing to the cause.

Opportunities passing by

What India should focus on apart from the ornamental details are some serious issues like finding synergies post Russia’s entry into WTO, leveraging the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to get a strong hold in the fast emerging Central Asian market and closer cooperation in filed of energy. Kazakhstan has suddenly found itself flush with unexpected oil and gas reserves in the North Western oil field of Karachaganak and yet to be commissioned offshore oil field Kashagan in north Caspian Sea. The proposed comprehensive economic cooperation agreement between India and Belarus-Kazakhstan-Russia Custom Union will greatly help the Indian energy needs for its growing economy. The SCO in recent years has gained importance in Central Asian business and strategic affairs. China’s undying hunger for natural resources and energy has got the countries in the region closer to it. Oil pipelines now traverse the harsh terrain to enter China and trade has increased seven folds in as many years. China is aggressively pushing for a free trade agreement for the six member trade bloc.

It is time India revived its own Regional trade bloc, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and aggressively look for a foothold in activities in its near abroad.